Age of Uncertainty

I picked this up in the New Yorker a couple of months ago, and felt that it says a lot about where we are right now.

Risk describes a situation where you have a sense of the range and likelihood of possible outcomes. Uncertainty describes a situation where it’s not even clear what might happen, let alone how likely the possible outcomes are. Uncertainty is always a part of business, but in a recession it dominates everything else: no one’s sure how long the downturn will last, how (shoppers) buyers will react, whether we’ll go back to the way things were before or see permanent changes in consumer behavior.

Before we can expect any significant change in our current market the level of uncertainty must diminish. Unfortunately we seem to be living more and more in a world of uncertainty. Perhaps just getting used to living with it will be enough to reduce uncertainty and get the market back on track. There are people who want to buy in Vallarta. Some are moving ahead, but a lot more are sitting on the sidelines, waiting to see where the economy is going, and of course, what’s up with the flu pandemic (which seems quite passé right now). Its amazing how many are not turned away by the turn of events, they do still want to have a second- or retirement- home here, they just need to be a little more comfortable where they stand financially and also have a better idea of where pricing is going here. Risk is one thing; people can alway factor it in somehow, but uncertainty, especially in recessionary times, is a whole other ball game.


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